top of page



In recent years, the area affected by forest degradation in the Brazilian Amazon has frequently been higher than deforestation. From August 2006 to July 2019, the degraded area totalled 194,058 km², representing almost two times the 99,630 km² deforested in the same period. The impacts of degradation include biodiversity loss and changes in the carbon stocks, affecting the CO₂ balance and future climate changes. This paper aims to explore socio-economic and environmental factors that influence forest degradation, project future scenarios, and assess the impact on the regional carbon balance, combining forest degradation and deforestation-related processes (clear-cut deforestation and secondary vegetation dynamics). We show that, while net CO₂ emissions from 2020 to 2050 are 0.74 Gt CO₂ in the Sustainable scenario, this value reached 22.63 Gt CO₂ in the Fragmentation scenario, an increasingly plausible scenario given the recent trends in the region.


Land-use scenarios, Brazilian Amazon, forest degradation scenarios

ANA DE AGUIAR, Talita Assis

Presentation within symposium:

S-14 Seeing Through the Smoke – fire as a catalyst of Amazonian tipping points

Projections of Future Forest Degradation and CO2 Emissions for the Brazilian Amazon


bottom of page